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ETHICS-NEWS: VOl 1 #4 May, 2003
TOPIC: WORLD POPULATION TRENDS
Dr. Sylvain Ehrenfeld IHEU representative to the UN

In 1950 the world's population was 2.5 billion. Because of previous growth the current estimate in 2003 it rose to 6.3 billion. In recent decades however a major development is that people are living longer and women have fewer children. This demographic development has important long run implications.

Since 1960 there has been a remakable decline in fertility, the number of children born per women. Fertility in developing countries has been cut in half, from 6 children per women to 2.9. Contraceptive usage has increased from 10 to 62% of women, and life expectancy has increased from 48 to 64 years. In the least developed countries fertility has declined only to 5.2 from 6.6 and life expectancy increased to just over 50 from about 39. For the developed countries life expectancy is around 79 years. The gap between rich and poor is still very large.

The current fertility rate in the developed world is below the replacement level of 2.1. (0.1 accounts for children who die before reaching the age of reproduction.) Why 2.1? At that rate the population will ultimately stabilize. When a couple has two children, the parents eventually die, and their children replace them. Below 2.1 the population will decline over time. Many European countries are well below the replacement level. Thirty-three countries are expected to be smaller at midcentury than today, Japan by 14% and Italy by 22 %. This spurs the need for immigrants, which many European countries find both socially and politically difficult.

The UN population division periodically projects the size and age composition of future populations. The 2002 revision scaled back their most likely medium world population projection for 2050 to 8.9 billion from a 9.3 billion two years previously, half due to AIDS death and half because of declining birth rates due to the decline in fertility. In another report they also project that deaths would outstrip births in most of globe's poor nations before the end of the 2lst century and thus ultimately stabilize world population.

Projections are not forecasts. They depend on assumptions about fertility and mortality. Every two years the projections are revised. The 2002 revision provides several possible scenarios to 2050 depending on fertility assumptions. The most likely MEDIAN projection is 8.3 billion. If the fertility level remains CONSTANT it would reach 12.8 billion. If women have on average "half a child" less we obtain the LOW projection of 7.4 billion. If women have on average half a child more we get the HIGH projection of 10.6 billion It is very important to recognize that small differences in fertility have large demographic outcomes, underscoring the critical importance of current policies and actions for the long run future of the world's population. WHAT WE DO NOW MATTERS!

The history of UN population conferences over the years has increased awareness of the pivotal role of the status of women. Even the language has undergone a major transformation. The conference in Bucharest in 1974 and Mexico in 1984 emphasized numerical population targets. The language used was significant to many people. The words "population control" seemed to imply coercion. Governments controlling families, men trying to control women, industrailized countries trying to weaken developing countries, or whites reducing the number of people of color. Another example is the term "overpopulation". If we have too many people, who is unneeded? The poor often felt that the wealthy were referring to them.

The conference in Cairo in 1994, based on extensive research as well as lobbying, emphasized that the key to stabilizing world population is the improvement of the status of women. They bear the children! The issues raised were controversial, including sensitive issues such as abortion, contraception, family planning, sex education for teenagers, womens' rights and education for girls.

Among the reasons for the decline in fertility are urbanization, which has increased from 30% in 1950 to 47% in 2000 and is estimated to be 60% by 2030. Other causes are Increased use of birth control and rise of family planning, later births, spacing between children and female participation in the work force. There is a still large unmet need for family planning. Currently it is estimated that more than 120 million women want to space the birth of their children or stop having children, but do not have access to family planning services. The demand for contraception in the next 15 years is expected to increase by 40%. The funding required for contraceptives and family planning and condoms to prevent AIDS which is increasingly affecting women, will double in the next 15 years.

In recent decades the basic demographic facts are simple. People are having fewer children, and people are living longer.These facts are having and will continue to have profound effects. Currently because of the explosive birth rate of the past, many societies are going through a massive youth bulge, with more than half the population under age 25; for example in Saudi Arabia 62%, Yemen 68% and Iran 60%. Many of these youths are not prepared for modernity, especially when they seek work in growing urban centers. The high influx of restless young people creates difficulties, particularly when their prospects are demoralizing. They require productive work.

In one or two generations these young people will be of working age, as is true in some countries already. However, these changes give poorer countries a demographic dividend. For several decades the bulk of their population will be of working age, with relatively few dependents, either old or young. This creates a one-time opportunity for growth. The opportunity can be realized if countries have made the appropriate investments in health, education and employment opportunities.

This demographic window opens only once. Several countries in East Asia, Brazil, Mexico and some other countries in Latin America have taken advantage of this and added to their growth. Another consequence of this historically new demographic situation is the ageing of the world's population. In more developed areas, the population of 60 or over currently constitutes 19% of the population. By 2050 it will account for 32%. The elderly population in more developed countries have already surpassed the population of children below 15 years of age. By 2050 there will be 2 elderly persons for every child. In less developed countries the proportion of the population aged 60 or over will rise from 8% in 2000 to 20% in 2050. In later years this effect will grow significantly.

This ageing phenomenon, unprecedented in history, is sometimes called the Age Quake. The UN is paying increased attention and formulating policies to deal with it. Population ageing will have major ramifications, social, political, economic, cultural and spiritual. Ageing will affect economic growth, savings, consumptioon, labor markets, taxes, health and health care, family composition and living arrangements, housing and education. It may create major fiscal and political problems. For pay-as-you-go pension systems, for examble, there will be fewer workers to finance the pensions of retirees.

In the underdeveloped world the ageing phenomenon will appear much later. They may be even less prepared. We have added years to our life. The serious moral question -- what kind of life will we add to these years?

Much of this information can be found in:

1. World Population Prospects the 2002 Revision by the Population Division. The Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN Secretariat. Population Division unpopulation.org

2, State of world population 20001 and 20002 published by UNFPA the UN Population Fund unfpa.org

3.International Institute on Ageing inia.org.mt

4.Human Developments Reports published by UNDP undp.org/hdro

This newsletter by Dr. Ehrenfeld is posted by moderator Mary Beaty for CEBO.org, the Council of Ethics Based Organizations, is a group of ethics based NGOs affiliated with the United Nations Department of Public Information. "Representing our individual organizations but joined in common cause, we have formed a council of peers to share information and raise awareness of ethical humanist responses to UN-related initiatives in the fields of human rights, intellectual and religious freedom, peace and conflict, corporate ethics, and sustainable development." Subscribe/unsubscribe or convey comments and queries to info@cebo.org or elibrarian@att.net