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Posted 12:48 PM by Mary

ETHICS-NEWS: VOl 1 #4 Part II, June 2003

TOPIC: WORLD POPULATION TRENDS
Dr. Sylvain Ehrenfeld, IHEU representative to the UN
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This second part of the Population newsletter discusses population projection trends, and U.S. actions hindering population control.

The UN population division periodically updates population projections. In the 2002 revision it projects how the woirld population in 2050 will rise from the current level of 6.3 billion.

They present four scenarios. If the current family planning activities and fertility rate continue, the UNPD get the CONSTANT scenario of 12.8 billion. The most likely scenario is the MEDIAN one which is 8.3 billion. For a decrease or increase of a half a unit in the fertility rate, they get the LOW projection of 7.4 billion and the HIGH projection of 10.6 billion. It is exremely important to notice that small differences in the fertility rate have large effects for saving lives and future population levels. Thus, current policies and actions are vital. While the use of family planning and birth control, the number of girls receiving education, the use of condoms and sex education have improved in recent years, there is still a vast unmet need.

The US administration, by its emphasis on abstinence and opposition to abortion, is undermining population control efforts in various ways. They cut funding for UNFPA which is active in family planning. (There is an UNFPA support campaign which aims to recoup some of the lost aid. See http://www.unfpa.org/support/friends/34million.htm). Using an abstinence campaign, the U.S. has warped their aid package for HIV/AIDS. At the moment there isn't enough money in the 2004 foreign aid bill to actually fund the aid bill that was passed. We hope this changes.

The reinstallation of the "gag rule" is another serious blow to international family planning. By limiting funding to countries that do not follow U.S. abstinence and anti-abortion policies, the U.S.imposes restrictions on reproductive health programs around the world. It is estimated that a minimum of 8 billion condoms are currently needed for significant reductions in the rate of of HIV infections in the developing world and eastern europe.Donor countries provided only about one billion in 2000. The US has discouraged the use of condoms and safe sex to promote abstention.

Finally, the US is undermining helping poor nations by a last minute refusal to sign an agreement to promote generic medicines through exemptions from trade rules of the World Trade Organization. Developing countries were counting on this ageement to fight Aids, tuberculosis, malaria and other diseases. But the US, with strong approval of the pharmaceutical industry, exercised the veto that every nation possesses and destroyed the agreement.

Much material is available for information and action. Refer to:

1. World Population Prospects, the 2002 revision by the UN Population Division UN Population.org.

2. Population Action International, PAI. Population action.org
3. Planet, International family planning. FamilyPlanet.org.
4 ."US Unilateralism and WTO", NY Times, March 17,2000
5. "Bush AIDS policy" in World Press Review. April 2003 p48
6. US gag rule. March 11,2003, Newsday, on Population Action International webpage.
7. "Secret war on condoms", Jan.10,2003, NY Times.
8. "UN population agency regains some lost aid", NY Times, May 12, 2003